Rewane's 2026 Economic Outlook: Weaker Naira, Rising Debt, and Emerging Opportunities
Renowned economic analyst Bismarck Rewane has presented a nuanced forecast for Nigeria's economic trajectory in 2026, blending cautious warnings with optimistic projections for strategic investments. Speaking at the Nigerian-British Chamber of Commerce (NBCC) Economic Outlook event in Lagos on January 22, 2026, the Managing Director of Financial Derivatives Company outlined a year of moderate global growth tempered by significant domestic pressures.
Global Context and Monetary Policy
Rewane emphasized that the global economy is poised for steady expansion in 2026, driven primarily by robust consumer spending and substantial investments in Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies. This international backdrop is expected to influence monetary policies worldwide, with many central banks likely to implement gradual interest rate reductions as inflationary pressures continue to subside. This global easing could create a more favorable environment for emerging markets like Nigeria, though specific challenges remain.
Naira Depreciation and Exchange Rate Pressures
A central concern in Rewane's analysis is the projected weakening of the Nigerian naira. Despite relative stability in 2025, the economist noted that the gap between official and parallel market exchange rates has widened to approximately ₦71, indicating renewed stress in the foreign exchange market. He projected that this pressure could intensify, potentially driving the naira to around ₦1,640 against the U.S. dollar by the end of 2026. This depreciation reflects underlying structural issues in Nigeria's forex management and external trade balances.
Rising Public Debt and Fiscal Challenges
Rewane highlighted Nigeria's escalating public debt as another critical area of concern. He projected that public debt would reach about 40.6% of GDP in 2026, with a gradual increase to approximately 43.5% by 2030. While he stressed that this growth is not expected to spiral uncontrollably, it nevertheless represents a significant fiscal burden that could constrain government spending on essential services and infrastructure. The economist warned that rising debt levels, combined with other fiscal pressures, could limit economic flexibility.
Key Economic Risks and Growth Projections
The economic analyst identified several interconnected risks that could hinder Nigeria's growth in 2026. These include volatile oil prices, reduced oil production capacity, foreign exchange shocks, dwindling foreign reserves, persistent security challenges, reform implementation fatigue, and mounting fiscal pressures. Despite these headwinds, Rewane projected that Nigeria's real GDP would grow by 4.1% in 2026, indicating continued economic recovery. He noted that monetary policy would likely remain cautious, with a potential interest rate reduction of about 100 basis points, though not an aggressive cut.
Sectoral Investment Opportunities
Amid the challenges, Rewane pointed to several sectors offering promising investment prospects in 2026. These include:
- Financial Technology (Fintech): Continuing digital transformation in banking and payments
- Energy and Power: Opportunities in both traditional and renewable energy sources
- Technology and AI: Growing adoption and investment in digital solutions
- Oil and Gas: Despite volatility, strategic opportunities remain
He specifically projected that manufacturing earnings could reach ₦38.25 trillion, supported by lower inflation, improved consumer spending, increased refining capacity from the Dangote refinery, enhanced regional trade, and better electricity supply. However, he cautioned that challenges like unreliable power infrastructure, high operational costs, and limited access to financing could still constrain manufacturing growth.
Capital Market Outlook
Rewane expressed optimism about Nigeria's capital market performance in 2026, forecasting an average of five new company listings with no expected delistings. Market capitalisation is projected to rise to ₦262 trillion, while the combined earnings of the top 10 listed companies could increase to ₦8.8 trillion. Daily market turnover is expected to average ₦135 billion, reflecting sustained investor interest despite broader economic challenges.
Strategic Asset Classes
The economist identified several key asset classes that investors should monitor in 2026, including gold, equities, treasury bills, and real estate. These assets are expected to perform differently based on economic conditions, with gold potentially serving as a hedge against currency depreciation and inflation, while equities could benefit from specific sectoral growth.
Rewane's comprehensive analysis presents 2026 as a year of both significant challenges and strategic opportunities for Nigeria's economy. While pressures on the naira and public debt require careful management, targeted investments in key sectors could yield substantial returns for savvy investors and contribute to broader economic resilience.
