Nigeria's Cooking Gas Market Faces Price Paradox Despite Production Gains
Nigeria's liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) market is experiencing a significant transformation characterized by increasing domestic production and decreasing imports, yet households nationwide continue to grapple with escalating cooking gas prices. Recent data reveals a complex scenario where energy self-sufficiency has grown substantially without translating into consumer relief.
Domestic Production Dominates as Imports Decline Sharply
According to figures from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), Nigeria consumed approximately 52,800 metric tonnes of cooking gas in 2025. Remarkably, domestic suppliers provided about 45,800 metric tonnes, representing 87% of total consumption, while imports accounted for just 7,100 metric tonnes or 13% of the market.
This marks a dramatic shift from previous years when Nigeria relied heavily on imported LPG. The growth in local production capacity has been driven by substantial investments in gas processing facilities and refineries across the country. Key installations including NLNG Trains 1–6, the Dangote Petrochemical Refinery, and gas plants at Gbaran-Ubie, Soku, and Obile now contribute the majority of Nigeria's cooking gas supply.
Monthly Supply Patterns Reveal Strong Domestic Foundation
A detailed examination of monthly data from 2025 demonstrates the consistent strength of domestic LPG production:
- January began with domestic sources providing 80% of supply
- February saw this share increase to 95%
- March achieved complete self-sufficiency with zero imports
- From April through October, domestic LPG consistently exceeded 88% of supply
- November and December witnessed increased imports at 32% and 29% respectively to meet seasonal demand peaks
Throughout the year, domestic LPG supplied between 66% and 100% of monthly demand, while imports ranged from 0% to 32%, confirming Nigeria's substantial progress toward energy independence in the cooking gas sector.
Household Burden Intensifies Despite Production Gains
Despite these production achievements, Nigerian households have faced mounting financial pressure. Market data indicates that the average price for a 12.5kg cylinder of cooking gas rose from ₦17,432 in January 2025 to ₦20,609 by July. During October and November 2025, prices surged dramatically, with LPG retailing at over ₦2,000 per kilogram in many locations, varying significantly by outlet and distance from supply hubs.
For low- and middle-income families who depend on LPG as a cleaner alternative to traditional fuels like firewood and kerosene, these price increases have created severe economic strain. Cooking gas has emerged as one of the fastest-growing household expenses, consuming larger portions of already constrained family budgets.
Structural Challenges Prevent Price Relief
Industry experts identify several persistent structural issues that prevent production gains from benefiting consumers:
- High transportation costs due to Nigeria's extensive distribution network
- Limited storage infrastructure across the country
- Distribution bottlenecks that create supply chain inefficiencies
- Pricing pressures linked to remaining import components
- Seasonal demand spikes that strain existing capacity
Because LPG distribution relies heavily on truck transportation across long distances, significant price disparities exist between coastal regions and inland states. Marketers emphasize that these logistical expenses, combined with periodic demand increases, continue to drive retail prices upward regardless of domestic production levels.
The Path Forward for Affordable Cooking Gas
While Nigeria has made remarkable strides in cooking gas self-sufficiency, achieving price stability for households requires addressing fundamental infrastructure and distribution challenges. The utilization rates across production facilities, ranging from 53% to over 100%, indicate intense pressure on existing infrastructure that must be expanded.
Until transportation costs decrease, storage capacity expands, and distribution networks improve, cooking gas is likely to remain financially burdensome for millions of Nigerian families, even in a market increasingly dominated by domestic production. This paradox highlights the complex relationship between energy production and consumer affordability in Nigeria's evolving energy landscape.
