Dangote Refinery Implements Strategic Shift Amid Production Unit Challenges
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has undertaken a significant operational adjustment, transitioning to lighter crude oil grades to mitigate the effects of the extended shutdown of its Residual Fluid Catalytic Cracker (RFCC). This crucial petrol-producing unit has been offline due to technical issues, prompting the refinery to adopt this new approach to sustain output and prevent major supply disruptions.
Strategic Move to Lighter Crude Grades
According to a recent report by the global commodities intelligence firm Kpler, titled "Dangote H1 2026 Outlook: RFCC challenges keep runs capped and ramp-up uneven," the Lekki-based refinery has been increasingly processing lighter crude grades with an API gravity of approximately 37–39 since the fourth quarter of 2025. This strategic shift is designed to preserve feedstock availability for key secondary units linked to the crude distillation unit, including the Continuous Catalytic Reformer (CCR), isomerisation, and hydrocracking units.
By prioritising lighter crude, Dangote Refinery has managed to keep these essential units operational, thereby reducing the risk of sharp disruptions to gasoline and middle distillate production. Despite this adaptive measure, the 200,000-barrel-per-day RFCC remains offline, continuing to pose significant challenges to the refinery's overall capacity.
RFCC Outages Constrain Production Capacity
The RFCC unit has emerged as the single biggest bottleneck for the refinery, suffering repeated outages since April 2025. These technical issues have limited refinery throughput and delayed a smooth scale-up of operations. Kpler estimates that crude runs in January averaged between 280,000 and 300,000 barrels per day, with expectations to hover around 300,000 to 320,000 barrels per day into February.
Initially anticipated to restart earlier, the RFCC's resumption has now been pushed to February 10, though market sources caution that lingering technical problems could lead to further delays. Additionally, a short maintenance shutdown of the crude distillation unit is expected in early February, adding another layer of operational complexity to the refinery's efforts.
Increased Fuel Imports to Support Supply
To sustain gasoline output amid constrained internal conversion capacity, Dangote Refinery has relied more heavily on imported gasoline blending components. Kpler estimates that gasoline imports into the refinery surged to around 45,000 barrels per day in January. Despite reduced operating rates, the refinery continued producing gasoline through alternative units such as the CCR and isomerisation units, helping to stabilise supply during the RFCC downtime.
January gasoline production is estimated at 95,000 barrels per day, alongside nearly 120,000 barrels per day of middle distillates. This reliance on imports highlights the ongoing challenges in achieving self-sufficiency in fuel production.
Medium-Term Outlook with Cautious Optimism
Looking ahead, Kpler projects that refinery runs could average about 350,000 barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026 and rise to roughly 400,000 barrels per day in the first half of the year, assuming a gradual RFCC ramp-up from the third week of February. Under this scenario, gasoline output could climb to 120,000 barrels per day in Q1 and about 150,000 barrels per day in H1 2026.
However, the firm cautioned that risks remain skewed to the downside, emphasising that full stabilisation is still months away. Extended ramp-up periods are common for mega-refineries, with steady operations often taking 24 to 36 months, particularly when critical conversion units face reliability challenges.
As Africa's largest single-train refinery, Dangote remains central to Nigeria's push to cut fuel imports and ease foreign exchange pressure. Yet, analysts agree that patience will be required as the refinery navigates the complex path to full operational stability, underscoring the importance of this strategic shift to lighter crude in maintaining production during this critical period.
