Dangote Refinery Seizes Control of Nigeria's Petrol Market
Nigeria's downstream petroleum sector has undergone a seismic transformation as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery captured a commanding 62% share of the country's Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) supply in January 2026. This historic achievement represents the first time domestic production has surpassed imports, fundamentally reshaping the nation's fuel landscape.
Market Dominance Through Production Surge
According to fresh data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, total average daily PMS supply reached 64.9 million litres in January 2026. Of this volume, domestic refineries contributed 40.1 million litres per day, while imports by Oil Marketing Companies and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited accounted for just 24.8 million litres daily.
The Dangote facility achieved a remarkable 25% month-on-month production increase, boosting output from 32 million litres per day in December 2025 to 40.1 million litres in January 2026. This surge propelled domestic production to exceed foreign inflows for the first time in the 13-month reporting period from January 2025 to January 2026.
From Import Dependence to Domestic Leadership
This milestone marks a dramatic reversal for Nigeria, which historically imported virtually all its petrol before the Dangote refinery commenced PMS production in September 2024. The world's largest single-train refinery, with a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, has gradually ramped up operations toward full stability.
The journey to market dominance faced significant challenges throughout 2025. Between January and May 2025, total daily supply ranged from 43.7 million to 57.1 million litres, with local refineries contributing between 18 and 25 million litres per day. Imports filled the substantial gap, peaking at 38.6 million litres daily in May.
September 2025 recorded the lowest total supply at 39.7 million litres per day, prompting regulatory intervention through additional import licences. By November 2025, imports surged to 52.1 million litres daily—the highest level in the dataset—while domestic output lagged at just 19.5 million litres.
Turning Point and Market Consolidation
The momentum shifted decisively in December 2025 when domestic supply doubled to 32 million litres per day, pushing total supply to 74.2 million litres daily. January's figures cemented this progress, with domestic production now covering 62% of demand and import reliance dropping to just 38% of the market.
David Bird, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Dangote Refinery, has stated that the plant can supply more than 50 million litres of petrol daily, suggesting substantial room for further growth and market expansion.
Implications for Nigeria's Economy
The growing dominance of local refining carries profound implications for Nigeria's economic landscape:
- Foreign exchange savings through reduced import requirements
- Decreased exposure to global price volatility
- Improved product availability and supply stability
- Enhanced energy security through domestic production capacity
The Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria maintains that its members, including Dangote, can meet national demand if provided adequate crude feedstock. At peak consumption of approximately 54 million litres per day, industry players argue the supply gap is narrowing rapidly.
Challenges for Fuel Importers
For fuel importers who once controlled the market, the numbers point to a shrinking share of Nigeria's petroleum sector. The restructuring of the downstream petroleum landscape represents both a challenge for traditional importers and an opportunity for domestic producers.
Interestingly, pricing dynamics reveal a complex market situation. According to the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria, imported premium motor spirit has emerged cheaper than petrol produced by the Dangote Refinery. February 2026 data shows the average landing cost of imported petrol stood at N721.80 per litre, significantly lower than the N799 per litre gantry price offered by Dangote Refinery—a price difference of approximately N77.2 per litre.
Despite this price advantage for imports, Dangote's production capacity and market share continue to grow, suggesting that factors beyond pricing—including supply reliability, foreign exchange considerations, and national energy security priorities—are driving the market transformation.
This market shift signals a decisive step toward fuel self-sufficiency for Nigeria, potentially reducing the nation's vulnerability to international market fluctuations and creating a more stable domestic energy environment for businesses and consumers alike.
