Fresh data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has revealed a significant reliance on imported petrol in December 2025, despite a marked increase in domestic supply from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
December 2025 Supply: Imports vs. Local Refining
The regulator's fact sheet shows that Nigeria imported approximately 1.31 billion litres of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) in the last month of 2025. This volume translates to an average daily import of about 42.2 million litres.
Concurrently, the Dangote refinery in Lagos supplied roughly 992 million litres during the same period, averaging 32 million litres per day. This combined supply from both foreign and local sources pushed the total national petrol volume for December to about 2.3 billion litres.
The NMDPRA attributed this substantial rise in total supply to heightened seasonal demand during the Yuletide festivities, noting that national consumption increased compared to preceding months.
A Comparative Look and the Underlying Supply Gap
The December figures indicate an improvement in the domestic refining contribution compared to November 2025. In November, Dangote's output was 585 million litres, while imports soared to 1.57 billion litres.
However, the regulator clarified that continued importation remained necessary due to supply gaps recorded earlier in the year. In September and October 2025, domestic output from the refinery fell below national demand. During that period, Dangote supplied about 17.6 million litres per day, while imports stood at 22.1 million litres daily to bridge the shortfall.
It is noteworthy that state-owned refineries remained non-operational, leaving the market dependent on private refining and imports.
Price Wars and Industry Reactions
The market dynamic in December was further shaped by a pricing strategy from Dangote Refinery. In a move aimed at easing costs for consumers and discouraging imports, the refinery initiated a price war by reducing its gantry price. This action led to a drop in pump prices to around N739 per litre.
Industry data indicates this made competition tough for importers, as the landing cost of imported petrol remained higher, fluctuating between N750 and N780 per litre. This was above Dangote's ex-depot price of N699 per litre.
Reacting to the sustained level of imports, Aliko Dangote, President of the Dangote Group, previously criticized the former NMDPRA chief executive, Farouk Ahmed. He accused the agency of issuing excessive import licences even when local storage tanks were full, arguing that such practices undermine local refining capacity and the national economy.
On the operational front, David Bird, Managing Director of Dangote Refinery, disclosed that the facility had commenced 24-hour loading operations, including night evacuations. This shift to round-the-clock activity is intended to sustain daily supply above 50 million litres nationwide, meet market demand, and improve turnaround time.
The increased output from domestic refining also boosted the national petrol stock sufficiency to over 29 days by the end of December 2025, providing a more substantial buffer than in previous months.
