Nigeria Spent N5.7 Trillion on Crude Imports in 2025 Despite High Production
In a striking development for Africa's largest oil producer, Nigeria imported crude oil worth N5.734 trillion in 2025, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. This massive expenditure occurred despite the country producing 530.41 million barrels of crude and generating approximately N55.5 trillion from sales during the same year.
Sharp Increase from Zero Imports in 2024
The NBS Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics report reveals that Nigeria recorded zero crude oil imports in 2024, making the 2025 figure represent a 100% year-on-year increase. Crude oil imports, classified under petroleum oils, emerged as a major import category during 2025, driven primarily by supply shortages to local refineries.
Quarterly data shows imports started at N1.19 trillion in the first quarter, rose by 37.8% to N1.64 trillion in the second quarter, and climbed further by 46.5% to N2.403 trillion in the third quarter. However, imports dropped sharply by 79.2% to N499.75 billion in the fourth quarter, suggesting some easing in demand or improved local supply toward year-end.
Monthly Volatility Reflects Supply Instability
A detailed examination of monthly figures reveals unstable supply conditions throughout 2025. Imports rose from N335.69 billion in January to N445.27 billion in February before dipping slightly in March. After a moderate decline in April, the figure surged by 116% in May, indicating heightened supply constraints.
The trend continued with significant fluctuations, peaking at N1.28 trillion in July—the highest monthly import figure recorded in 2025. Imports declined steadily afterward, dropping to zero by December. This pattern demonstrates that refineries adjusted their sourcing strategies frequently due to inconsistent domestic crude availability.
Refineries Turn to International Markets
Industry findings indicate that both modular and large-scale refineries, including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, are increasingly sourcing crude from international markets. The Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria attributed this trend to structural and commercial challenges within the domestic supply chain.
CORAN's spokesperson, Eche Idoko, explained that local refiners have received little to no crude allocations under the Domestic Crude Oil Supply Obligation framework or the naira-for-crude arrangement. He noted that some modular refineries operate far below capacity or shut down entirely due to lack of feedstock, with facilities designed to process 10,000 barrels per day sometimes producing as little as 1,000 barrels or suspending operations for months.
Dangote Refinery Faces Supply Shortfall
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery confirmed it receives about five cargoes of crude monthly from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company under the naira-for-crude deal. However, the refinery requires approximately 13 cargoes monthly to meet demand, leaving a significant shortfall that must be covered through imports.
The company added that crude supplied locally is priced at international rates, forcing it to source additional volumes from global markets using foreign exchange. This economic reality complicates efforts to reduce import dependency.
Structural Constraints Limit Domestic Supply
Professor Dayo Ayoade, an energy expert, pointed to deeper structural issues affecting crude availability. He explained that past forward sales of crude to secure government loans, underinvestment in upstream operations, and competing export commitments have reduced the volume available for domestic refining.
Ayoade also noted that modern refineries require a mix of crude grades, meaning some level of importation is inevitable. He warned that crude imports are likely to persist into 2026 due to ongoing challenges such as oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and logistics constraints.
Global Sourcing Patterns Emerge
The NBS data shows that Nigeria imported crude mainly from African countries such as Algeria and Angola, with the United States accounting for the largest share. Analysts say this reflects a broader trend where refiners prioritize reliability and quality over proximity in sourcing crude.
Despite recent investments in refining capacity, including large-scale projects, Nigeria continues to face difficulties aligning crude production with domestic refining demand. Although the Petroleum Industry Act introduced provisions to ensure local supply, implementation challenges and existing contractual obligations have limited progress.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has announced plans to source crude oil for the Dangote refinery through international traders to sustain refining operations. Meanwhile, Nigerians continue to lament rising petrol prices, with pump prices in some locations reaching about N1,200 per litre.
