NMDPRA Forecasts Sustained Decline in Fuel Prices Across Nigeria
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority has provided optimistic projections for consumers, indicating that prices for petrol, diesel, and Liquefied Petroleum Gas are set to continue their downward trend. This positive outlook stems from significant improvements in supply chains and heightened competition within the country's downstream oil and gas industry.
Market Forces Driving Price Reductions
During a recent inspection tour of Aradel Holdings Plc facilities in Rivers State, NMDPRA Chief Executive Mr. Saidu Mohammed explained the factors behind the anticipated price decreases. Increased fuel availability, stronger private sector involvement, and robust market competition following the removal of fuel subsidies have created conditions conducive to price stability and affordability.
"The more supply we have, the lower the price. This is already evident as petrol prices have dropped from about N1,000 to around N800 per litre due to competition," Mohammed stated. He emphasized that Nigerians are gradually transitioning toward more economical energy options as local production and distribution networks strengthen nationwide.
Subsidy Removal Unlocks Market Efficiency
The NMDPRA chief highlighted that eliminating fuel subsidies has been crucial for allowing the downstream sector to function properly. He stressed that sustained competition, rather than government subsidies, represents the most reliable method to guarantee adequate supplies of petrol and cooking gas at reasonable prices.
"Sustained competition will ensure efficient supply of petrol and gas at affordable prices for Nigerians," he affirmed. Mohammed added that Nigeria requires additional refineries with advanced conversion capabilities to produce diesel, fuel oil, naphtha, LPG, and petrol, noting that local refining remains essential for long-term price stability.
Prioritizing Domestic Demand Before Export Ambitions
While reaffirming Nigeria's ambition to export petroleum products to African, European, and American markets, Mohammed clarified that domestic demand must first be fully satisfied by local operators. He referenced President Bola Tinubu's commitment to a free-market economy, recalling that fuel subsidy removal marked the President's initial major policy decision.
According to Mohammed, this policy has unlocked private investment and stimulated activity throughout the oil and gas value chain, creating a more dynamic and responsive market environment.
Revitalizing State Refineries and Local Economies
Regarding state-owned refineries, Mohammed noted that their operational status remains primarily under the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited. However, he disclosed that NMDPRA is engaging with NNPCL to ensure crude oil delivery and product availability at Port Harcourt and Warri refinery reserves.
"Restoring loading activities will boost local economies and revive product distribution within host communities," he explained, adding that Nigerians would experience economic benefits even before full refinery operations resume.
Aradel Showcases Indigenous Capabilities
Mohammed praised Aradel Holdings for demonstrating Nigeria's capacity to design, finance, and operate world-class energy infrastructure without foreign operatorship. He revealed that the company's ongoing expansion would enable petrol loading from its refinery before the end of 2027.
"Aradel has supplied gas to NLNG for about 13 years, operates an 11,000 barrels-per-day refinery and runs a virtual gas pipeline distributing compressed natural gas across Nigeria," he detailed.
Multiple Refineries Needed Despite Dangote's Scale
Mohammed emphasized that despite the substantial capacity of the Dangote Refinery, Nigeria would require multiple refineries to meet domestic, continental, and global demand. Describing the midstream sector as Nigeria's strongest economic growth driver, he assured investors of continued regulatory incentives to attract large-scale investments.
In response, Aradel Holdings Managing Director Mr. Adegbite Falade reaffirmed the company's commitment to expanding refining capacity, commercializing gas, and eliminating routine gas flaring. "Nigerians should expect continued scaling, local value addition and prioritisation of domestic energy needs," Falade assured.
Shifting Dynamics in Cooking Gas Market
Recent data from NMDPRA indicates that Nigeria's cooking gas market is undergoing significant transformation. While imports are decreasing and local production is increasing, households continue to face elevated costs for cooking fuel. In 2025, Nigeria consumed approximately 52,800 metric tonnes of Liquefied Petroleum Gas, with domestic marketers supplying about 45,800 metric tonnes and imports accounting for just 7,100 metric tonnes, representing roughly 13% of total consumption.
This evolving landscape suggests that while progress is being made toward energy self-sufficiency, challenges remain in ensuring affordable access for all Nigerian households.
