Private depot operators across Nigeria have implemented fresh adjustments to petrol and diesel prices in key regions, including Lagos, Warri, Port Harcourt, and Calabar, over recent days. This development occurs against a backdrop of ongoing operational challenges at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which continues to operate below its intended capacity, affecting local fuel distribution networks.
Market Data Reveals Upward Price Pressure
New market data indicates a renewed upward pressure on fuel prices at major depots nationwide. Analysts suggest these depot-level increases are likely to filter through to retail filling stations, potentially impacting consumers at the pump. The price adjustments come amid reports of delayed import licences and heightened market speculation regarding domestic supply stability.
Petrol Price Movements Across Depots
Data reviewed from industry sources shows that in the past week, the average price of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) hovered around N800 per litre at private depots. In Lagos, prices demonstrated relative stability with specific variations: A.A Rano eased to N714 per litre, while AITEO, Rainoil, and Eternal maintained rates at N800. Shellplux remained steady at N725 per litre.
In Warri, tighter local supply conditions pushed Matrix depot prices to N767 per litre, with Optima, Zamson, and A&E depots recording prices of N765, N765, and N751 respectively. Meanwhile, in Calabar, limited availability supported petrol prices, keeping them in the range of N767 to N751 per litre across various depots.
Diesel Prices Experience Significant Increases
Automotive Gas Oil (diesel) prices also registered notable increases across major depot locations. In Lagos, Aipec depot raised diesel prices from N908 to N915 per litre, A.A Rano increased from N911 to N915, and Gulf Treasure moved from N910 to N911. Port Harcourt witnessed more substantial hikes, with Bulk Strategic depot elevating diesel prices from N951 to N970 per litre.
Warri presented a contrasting picture, with diesel prices remaining largely flat. Matrix depot held steady at N945 per litre, while Edo Refinery maintained N955, as reduced sales volumes mitigated upward price pressure in that region.
Import Licence Delays Tighten Supply Outlook
Industry analysts attribute the tightening supply situation to delays in issuing import licences, which have reduced product inflows into the country. This has left several jetties idle and constrained depot supply nationwide. Market observers warn that prolonged uncertainty regarding import licences could sustain upward pressure on both petrol and diesel rates, particularly if replenishment delays continue unabated.
Dangote Refinery Operational Constraints Persist
The much-anticipated production ramp-up at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery continues to face significant technical hurdles. Persistent outages at the facility's 200,000-barrel-per-day Residual Fluid Catalytic Cracker have effectively capped gasoline output. While a restart is now projected around February 10, 2026, industry analysts caution that achieving steady-state operations remains several months away, further delaying a smooth production increase.
Retail Market Implications
With petrol prices clustering around N800 per litre at private depots, market participants indicate that retail pump prices may remain under pressure until supply conditions show meaningful improvement. This comes as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited maintains its retail outlets at competitive rates, with checks showing NNPC stations in Lagos dispensing fuel at N784 per litre to motorists.
The current market dynamics highlight the interconnected nature of Nigeria's energy sector, where operational challenges at major refineries, import licence delays, and depot-level pricing decisions collectively influence the final cost paid by consumers at filling stations across the country.
