Nigeria's Petrol Imports Experience Dramatic 96.7% Surge Despite Growing Domestic Refining Capacity
Official regulatory data has revealed a startling development in Nigeria's energy sector, with petrol imports experiencing a massive 96.7% increase from February to March 2026. This surge occurred despite simultaneous growth in domestic refining output, primarily driven by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery's operations.
Import Volumes Skyrocket as Domestic Production Expands
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) disclosed in its March 2026 fact sheet that daily petrol import volumes climbed dramatically from 3.0 million litres in February to 5.9 million litres in March. This significant increase signals a renewed reliance on foreign fuel supplies even as Nigeria's domestic refining capacity continues to develop.
Concurrently, local petrol supply demonstrated steady growth, rising from 30.5 million litres per day to 34.2 million litres per day during the same period. This domestic production increase was largely attributed to output from domestic refiners, with the Dangote refinery playing a prominent role in this expansion.
Consumption Declines Amid Rising Fuel Prices
Despite the overall increase in petrol supply, which grew marginally from 39.5 million litres per day in February to 40.1 million litres per day in March, consumption patterns told a different story. Daily petrol consumption experienced a significant decline, dropping from 56.9 million litres in February to 47.3 million litres in March.
This consumption decrease appears directly linked to rising fuel prices throughout the review period. The Dangote refinery implemented multiple price adjustments during March, with petrol prices reaching approximately N1,275 per litre, creating economic pressure on consumers and reducing overall demand.
Stock Sufficiency Drops Despite Increased Supply
The NMDPRA data revealed concerning trends in inventory management, with petrol stock sufficiency declining substantially from 30.7 days in February to just 21.2 days in March. This indicates significantly tighter inventory levels despite both increased import volumes and improved domestic output.
The combination of higher imports, rising local production, and reduced stock cover points to ongoing structural adjustments within Nigeria's fuel supply chain as the country navigates the transition toward greater energy independence.
Policy Adjustments on Import Licences
These developments follow recent policy shifts by the NMDPRA regarding petrol import licences. The regulatory authority had initially restricted the issuance of new licences to encourage utilization of locally refined products and support investments in domestic refining infrastructure, particularly following the commencement of operations at the Dangote refinery.
However, the authority later resumed issuing licences to oil marketers, citing the necessity to prevent potential supply shortages and maintain national energy security during this transitional period. This policy adjustment reflects the delicate balance regulators must strike between supporting domestic refining growth and ensuring consistent fuel availability.
Additional Energy Sector Developments
Further analysis of the NMDPRA fact sheet revealed additional energy sector trends:
- Diesel (AGO) supply experienced a significant decline from 24.4 million litres per day in February to 10.3 million litres per day in March
- Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) supply remained stable at 4.7 kilotonnes per day, with increased domestic contribution
- Domestic gas supply recorded slight growth, rising from 4.771 billion standard cubic feet per day to 4.888 bscf/d
The regulator also noted ongoing expansion efforts within the refining sector, including the commencement of hydrocarbon introduction at the second train of the Waltersmith Refinery. Continued output from the Dangote refinery alongside modular refinery expansions could potentially reduce Nigeria's dependence on fuel imports over the medium to long term.
Industry Calls for Liberalized Import Policies
The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) has urged the federal government to reinstate petrol import licences, arguing that such measures would promote healthy competition and stabilize fuel prices nationwide. This position aligns with recommendations from international institutions including the World Bank, which has advocated for importation allowances to prevent inflationary pressures.
According to PETROAN representatives, their recommendation supports long-standing advocacy for a liberalized downstream petroleum sector that balances domestic production growth with market competition and consumer protection.
