Nigeria's petrol imports surged to 43% of total supply in July, even as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery operates at scale, raising fresh concerns about the country's fuel market dynamics. The Dangote Refinery has warned that continued issuance of import licences is making it difficult to predict domestic demand and may force it to export surplus petrol to regional and international markets.
Imports Rise Sharply in July
Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) showed that petrol imports averaged 19.7 million litres per day in July, up from 18.1 million litres per day in June. At the same time, petrol supplied by domestic refineries fell to 25.8 million litres per day in July, from 32.5 million litres per day in June.
Combined domestic and imported supply stood at an average of 45.5 million litres daily in July, with imports accounting for roughly 43.3 per cent of the total. The resurgence is particularly significant because imported petrol had fallen dramatically earlier in the year. In May, imports averaged just 5.9 million litres per day, representing about 12 per cent of total supply. Imports then surged to 18.1 million litres per day in June before rising further in July.
Dangote Raises Fresh Concern Over Import Licences
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has expressed concern over the continued issuance of petrol import licences, saying the development is making it increasingly difficult to predict domestic demand and manage its inventory. The refinery said it has maintained sufficient petrol stocks and reserved volumes to ensure steady supply to Nigerian consumers, according to a report by Punch.
However, it said uncertainty over the volume of imported products entering the market makes it commercially difficult to keep large quantities of excess fuel in storage indefinitely. According to the refinery, surplus petrol that cannot immediately be absorbed by the domestic market will increasingly have to be exported to regional and international markets. Dangote stressed that the move should not be interpreted as an inability to supply Nigeria. Rather, it said exports are a response to excess inventory created by uncertainty surrounding imported fuel volumes.
Nigeria's Refining Gains Under Pressure
The Guardian reported that the latest development highlights the volatility surrounding Nigeria's transition from a major petrol importer to a country with growing domestic refining capacity. Between January and July 2026, domestic refineries supplied approximately 74.9 per cent of Nigeria's petrol, while imports accounted for 25.1 per cent, according to an analysis of NMDPRA data. Domestic refinery supply during the period was significantly higher than in the corresponding period of 2025.
However, the sharp month-to-month changes show that imports remain an important source of supply whenever domestic production falls. The Dangote refinery, with its huge refining capacity, has become a major contributor to Nigeria's domestic petrol supply. Yet the latest figures suggest the country's fuel market is still adjusting to the interaction between local refining, imports and changing demand.
From Petrol Imports to Fuel Exports
The development comes as Nigeria's refined petroleum exports are also rising. The US Energy Information Administration recently reported that Nigeria's seaborne petroleum-product exports had increased more than sevenfold since 2023, largely driven by output from the Dangote refinery. This creates an unusual situation for Nigeria: the country is increasingly capable of exporting refined products while still importing significant quantities of petrol.
For Dangote, the immediate concern is ensuring that production and inventory decisions match actual domestic demand. The refinery is therefore calling for greater transparency, better market coordination and policies that support local refining while maintaining reliable fuel supplies and strengthening Nigeria's energy security.
Legit.ng earlier reported that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has increased its Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) gantry price by ₦20 per litre, moving the price from ₦1,165 to ₦1,185 per litre. The new price takes effect from midnight on Friday, August 21, 2026, according to information gathered by Petroleumprice.ng. The refinery's warning underscores the need for coordinated policy to balance local refining, imports and demand forecasting as Nigeria navigates its energy transition.
