Oil Industry Leaders Reaffirm Commitment to 3 Million Barrels Per Day Target
Key stakeholders in Nigeria's oil and gas sector have reiterated their dedication to achieving a crude oil production target of three million barrels per day (mbpd). This commitment was emphasized during the 2026 Oloibiri Lecture Series and Energy Forum, organized by the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) in Abuja. Despite ongoing challenges in consistently reaching even 2mbpd, regulators and operators insist that the 3mbpd goal remains non-negotiable, but must be pursued with a focus on significantly lowering production costs to enhance global competitiveness.
High Production Costs and the Need for Efficiency
Nigeria's oil production costs are among the highest worldwide, with estimates reaching approximately $40 per barrel. At the forum, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), highlighted that achieving the production target requires more than just increased drilling activities. She stressed the necessity for robust policy and regulatory frameworks that attract investment, foster innovation, and enable digital oilfields to create value sustainably. Eyesan noted that while Nigeria boasts over 37 billion barrels of crude oil and more than 200 trillion cubic feet of gas, the sector has faced setbacks due to slowed investments, stalled projects, rising costs, and declining investor confidence.
"Resource endowment alone does not create value," Eyesan stated, underscoring the critical need for effective execution driven by the alignment of policy, capital, and technology. She revealed that ongoing regulatory reforms and data-driven oversight have already attracted over $10 billion in new upstream investments, with another Final Investment Decision (FID) recently sanctioned in the deepwater segment.
Regulatory Reforms and Investment Inflows
Udobong Ntia, Executive Vice President of Upstream at the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), represented Group Chief Executive Officer Bayo Ojulari at the event. He expressed confidence that the 3mbpd target is achievable, citing Nigeria's existing assets, resources, and regulatory framework. Ntia emphasized that the future of the upstream sector will depend on how intelligently barriers are regulated, funded, secured, and produced. He commended NUPRC for resolving long-standing issues such as legacy asset disputes and stalled investment decisions, which have helped attract over $24 billion in capital inflows.
Similarly, Farouk Ahmed, Chief Executive of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), represented by Saidu Mohammed, outlined that achieving the production target requires adequate funding, efficient technological systems, and a stable regulatory environment. Ahmed added that Nigeria is positioning itself as an emerging energy hub capable of meeting domestic demand and exporting to regional and international markets. He linked the crude oil target to the country's gas ambitions, including the Decade of Gas initiative aimed at boosting daily gas production.
Emphasis on Technology and Human Capital
Francis Nwaochei, Chairman of the SPE Nigeria Council, in his welcome address, described the forum as a platform for stakeholders to collectively shape the future of Nigeria's energy industry. The conference theme, 'Beyond Three Million Barrels Target: Harmonising Digitalisation, Capital and Policy Frameworks for Intelligent Operations and Asset Optimisation,' challenges the industry to rethink value creation. Nwaochei noted that data and technology are becoming as critical as hydrocarbons, with capital being increasingly selective and policies needing to evolve rapidly to support growth.
The Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF) also emphasized the role of human capital and digital skills in achieving industry targets. Executive Secretary Prof. Shu'aibu Aliyu urged operators to shift focus from mere production volumes to efficiency, innovation, and optimisation. PTDF is strengthening training programmes in areas such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), robotics, and the Internet of Things (IoT) to build a workforce capable of driving intelligent operations.
Optimising Existing Assets for Future Gains
Stakeholders at the forum highlighted the importance of optimising existing assets rather than relying solely on new developments. They noted that recent production gains in some operations have resulted from improved efficiency in ageing infrastructure. The operators concluded that the 3mbpd target remains achievable, but Nigeria must address high production costs, deploy advanced technologies, and sustain regulatory reforms to unlock its full potential in the global energy market.
