Energy ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, known as OPEC+, are likely to maintain current oil production levels when they convene for virtual meetings on Sunday, according to market analysts.
Market Uncertainty Drives Cautious Approach
The biannual ministerial gathering occurs amid significant uncertainty about future oil price movements. Traders are closely monitoring developments in Ukraine peace negotiations, which could potentially lead to Russian crude oil returning to global markets in larger volumes.
Since April 2025, eight key OPEC+ members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia have been gradually increasing production. This strategic move aims to reclaim market share amid strong competition from non-OPEC+ producers including the United States, Canada, and Guyana.
Production Pause Amid Seasonal Factors
In early November, the V8 group announced they would pause their output increases during the first quarter of 2026. This decision responds to anticipated lower seasonal demand, following a minor production hike scheduled for December.
Commerzbank analyst Barbara Lambrecht stated that the upcoming OPEC+ ministerial meeting is "unlikely to deliver any major new drivers for the market." She highlighted that a potential ceasefire in Ukraine could reduce the risk premium currently supporting oil prices.
"A ceasefire would likely stop mutual attacks on energy infrastructure, and sanctions might be eased or even lifted," Lambrecht explained, noting this development could remove the price premium driven by geopolitical risks.
Potential Scenarios for Oil Markets
Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, an analyst at Global Risk Management, presented an alternative scenario. He suggested that stalled negotiations "could force US President Donald Trump to tighten sanctions again" against Russia's oil industry, potentially pushing crude prices higher.
The persistent uncertainty surrounding oil price direction has strengthened analysts' conviction that OPEC+ will maintain current group-wide production levels, aligning with earlier predictions from the eight-member coalition.
During their previous ministerial meeting, the organization revealed plans to assess maximum sustainable production capacity for each member country. These assessments will establish benchmark levels for production quotas starting in 2027.
HSBC analyst Kim Fustier acknowledged "some noise around how there could be some discussions around baseline production levels" but believed it remains "still too soon for them to be discussing it" comprehensively. Fustier expects the group will delay substantive discussions until 2026.
