Comercio Partners Forecasts Telecom Boom as Nigeria's Sector Targets Aggressive 2026 Growth
Investment firm Comercio Partners has projected a significant expansion phase for Nigeria's telecommunications sector in 2026, signaling a transition from the consolidation and recovery cycle of 2025 to a period of accelerated growth. The firm's 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, titled "Policy Shock to Structural Reset: Charting a Sustainable Economic Path," indicates the industry is poised for a decisive leap forward.
Drivers of Growth and Current Performance
The projected growth is driven by multiple factors including rising data adoption, surging data consumption, and the rapid integration of enabling technologies such as 5G and fintech solutions. The sector demonstrated remarkable resilience in 2025, reinforcing its position as a leading non-oil contributor to Nigeria's economy with an estimated 9 to 9.2% share of the nation's GDP.
Growth momentum was underpinned by regulatory reforms, increased digital demand, and tariff adjustments that improved operators' revenue profiles. Market leaders MTN Nigeria and Airtel Nigeria dominated performance, delivering strong year-to-date returns of 158.22% and 10% respectively in 2025. Together, both operators control approximately 86% of the market and are expected to maintain their dominance in 2026 through data-focused growth strategies.
Key Metrics and Projections
According to the Comercio Partners report, data penetration crossed the 50% broadband threshold in 2025, reaching 50.58% by November. This is expected to accelerate further in 2026, though the ambitious 70% target from the expiring National Broadband Plan (2020-2025) was missed, leaving room for policy-driven catch-up.
By November 2025, internet subscriptions stood at 144.8 million, with teledensity rebounding to 81.8%, reflecting renewed consumer engagement and network expansion. The firm projects subscriber growth of between 5% and 7% in 2026, supported by expanding fibre infrastructure, AI-powered platforms, and government-backed initiatives such as Project Bridge.
Fibre penetration, currently below 20% regionally, is expected to increase significantly, deepening digital inclusion and strengthening the backbone of Nigeria's digital economy. The stabilisation of the naira and improved foreign exchange liquidity in 2025 have restored profitability and strengthened investor confidence across the sector.
Challenges in a Maturing Market
Despite the upbeat outlook, the report highlighted several structural constraints facing Nigeria's telecommunications sector. Bridging the rural-urban connectivity gap remains a priority, particularly as broadband expansion continues to concentrate in major urban centers.
Operators also face mounting service quality complaints following tariff increases, alongside infrastructure vandalism and lingering coverage gaps. Comercio Partners further pointed to the complexities of operating in a maturing duopolistic market, where competition concerns could intensify regulatory scrutiny.
Infrastructure strain, affordability issues, and the need for sustained capital expenditure in 4G and 5G networks remain pressing challenges that must be addressed for sustained growth.
Revenue Gains and Economic Impact
The report stated that the sector's growth story in 2025 and into 2026 is now one of resilience and acceleration. Foreign exchange stability unlocked real earnings power, while tariff hikes and the data boom drove revenue to record highs. Cost efficiencies, including tower lease renegotiations to reduce dollar exposure, have strengthened operators' margins.
Revenue gains from higher data usage, cost efficiencies, and steady infrastructure investments have positioned leading operators as defensive yet high-growth stocks on the Nigerian Exchange. Comercio Partners concluded that 2026 is likely to cement telecommunications as a core driver of Nigeria's digital economy.
With mobile data serving as the backbone of urbanization, fintech services, and video streaming demand, the sector's evolution from recovery to expansion signals cautious optimism for sustained growth and deeper economic impact throughout Nigeria.
