The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has released a significant forecast, projecting that the total value of global trade will exceed a staggering $35 trillion in 2025. This landmark figure highlights the continued resilience of international commerce despite mounting challenges.
Strong Growth in 2025, But Headwinds Gather for 2026
According to the December 2025 Global Trade Update from UNCTAD, the projected $35 trillion represents a substantial increase of about $2.2 trillion, or seven per cent, compared to the same period in 2024. This indicates that trade is expanding at a faster rate than the global economy in real terms, signalling renewed momentum for cross-border business activities.
However, the report strikes a note of caution for the following year. UNCTAD warns that the expansion of global trade is projected to slow down in 2026. This deceleration is expected due to several converging pressures:
- Softer global economic growth.
- Heightened geopolitical tensions and fragmentation.
- Rising costs related to logistics, financing, and regulatory compliance.
- Continued policy uncertainty affecting international activity.
Developing Economies as the Engine of Trade
In a notable shift, UNCTAD expressed greater optimism for developing regions, where trade sentiment remains largely positive. The report highlights that many developing nations, including those in Africa, continue to pursue open trade policies and encourage cross-border investment.
This proactive stance is fostering stronger intra-regional trade and robust South-South exchanges. For countries like Nigeria, this dynamic is crucial. The strong performance from Africa and East Asia, along with expanding South-South trade, helped drive positive trade growth in the third quarter of 2025. UNCTAD suggests this trend could partially offset the effects of weaker demand from more advanced economies.
Near-Term Momentum Versus Medium-Term Caution
Despite the cautious outlook for 2026, UNCTAD underscored a relatively strong near-term performance. Trade growth stayed positive in Q3 2025, at around 2.5 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter basis, primarily driven by developing economies. The UNCTAD Nowcast for the fourth quarter also points to ongoing growth.
The agency observed that import demand in specific consumption-led markets and sectors, such as digital services and green industries, may offer modest support. However, it cautioned that this is unlikely to counterbalance the broader factors leading to an overall slowdown. Escalating trade frictions are identified as an additional risk likely to further limit global trade flows in the coming year.
Overall, the UNCTAD report paints a picture of a global trading system at a crossroads. While 2025 is set to be a record year powered by emerging markets, structural weaknesses, geopolitical strains, and rising costs pose significant threats to maintaining that momentum into 2026.
