Pre-Primary Maneuvers Undermine Democracy
Political office seekers in Nigeria are increasingly relying on endorsements from caucuses and godfathers rather than competing in open primaries ahead of the 2027 elections. Many aspirants are desperate for President Bola Tinubu's endorsement to be considered sole candidates, fearing they cannot win a level playing field due to lack of performance in previous roles. This desperation stems from the desire to retain access to state resources and immunity from the general economic hardship outside government.
Endorsements Over Open Contests
The electoral process has been skewed to elevate endorsements above open contests. Prospective contestants queue at Aso Villa for photo opportunities with President Tinubu, using these as evidence of closeness to the highest office. This practice moderates popular participation at the grassroots level, shortchanging aspirants without godfathers and closing the political space.
Cabinet Resignations and Political Survival
President Tinubu's request for cabinet members interested in the 2027 elections to resign by March 31, 2026, in compliance with Section 88(1) of the Electoral Act 2026, posed a challenge. Some ministers, like former Foreign Affairs Minister Yussuf Tuggar and former Transportation Minister Saidu Alkali, resigned in time to contest governorship races. Others, like former Power Minister Adebayo Adelabu, delayed until April 22, after proposing a Coordinating Minister for Energy. Adelabu's performance in the power sector was dismal, yet he secured a photo opportunity with the President for his Oyo State governorship bid. Reports suggest President Tinubu doubted his electoral viability, given his two previous losses.
Oyo and Osun: Battlegrounds for Survival
In Oyo State, Governor Seyi Makinde faces federal pressure to hand over the state to the APC. The Olubadan, Oba Rashidi Ladoja, was allegedly linked to an impeachment plot against Makinde, but denied involvement. Similarly, in Osun State, Governor Isiaka Adeleke moved to the Accord Party for the August 8, 2026 election, as the federal government withheld about N130 billion in council allocations. The opposition parties in these states struggle against unrelenting federal forces, eroding confidence in democratic rule.
Consensus Candidates and Rigged Primaries
Pre-primary processes are ongoing, with consensus candidates being imposed in many states. In Ogun State, Governor Dapo Abiodun anointed Senator Adeola Solomon as APC flagbearer, aiming to avoid a rancorous primary. However, former Governor Gbenga Daniel's camp was excluded from crucial meetings, highlighting the anti-democratic nature of such impositions. In Lagos, Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat was crowned consensus candidate before the real primary, a move considered a done deal due to President Tinubu's ownership of the state's politics.
Governors Hijack Primaries
President Tinubu has reportedly empowered APC governors to control primary elections in their states, leading to governors deciding who receives nomination forms and frustrating unwanted aspirants. The amended Electoral Act 2026 prevents aspirants from defecting to other parties after registration, further restricting political freedom. Some lawmakers are seeking automatic tickets from the Presidency, fearing they cannot win in a fair contest.
Calls for Level Playing Field
Stakeholders argue that democracy requires a level playing field, not godfathers hoarding forms or selecting aspirants. Consensus should be voluntary, not coerced. The current trend of rigging before primaries threatens the essence of democratic competition and risks repeating historical political crises, as seen in the Western Region in 1965 and 1983.
