Former Minister of Youth and Sports Development Solomon Dalung has predicted that President Bola Tinubu will lose the 2027 presidential election, warning that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has lost the northern backing central to its 2023 victory. Dalung, who served under former President Muhammadu Buhari and is now a member of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), made the remarks during an appearance on Channels Television's Politics Today programme, where he assessed the opposition's chances ahead of the next general election.
Dalung: North's Support for Tinubu Was Built on Buhari's Influence
Dalung argued that a significant portion of President Tinubu's 8.7 million votes in the 2023 election came from northern voters mobilised by Buhari's political standing and the APC's Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket. He put that northern contribution at roughly 5.5 million votes, suggesting the president's true base could be as low as 3.7 million.
"So, Tinubu does not even have the 8.7 million votes. So, we would rather have 3.7 million votes," Dalung said. He attributed the shift to the hardship that northerners have experienced under the current administration, describing the anger building across the country as broader than party rivalry. "This anger is not the anger of the political parties, but it is the anger of Nigeria. People who will decide and determine," he said.
Government Accused of Mismanaging Goodwill and Operating on Impunity
Dalung also accused the Tinubu administration of governing with impunity and squandering public goodwill since taking office. "This administration in the history of Nigeria has been one of the governments that mismanaged the goodwill of the Nigerian people. It is very reckless, it operates on impunity and it doesn't bother whether what they are doing has any implications on the citizens of the country," he said, adding that the government's record had effectively made it a campaigner for the opposition.
The former minister pointed to the APC's defeat in the 2026 Osun governorship election as a sign of the ruling party's weakening grip. He referenced the August 15, 2026 Osun governorship election, where APC candidate Bola Oyebamiji lost to incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke, as proof that money and political muscle could no longer guarantee results for the ruling party. "Almost 20-something governors were in Osun. About 15 or 16 ministers, the national chairman, were there. All the bullion vans that were rolling into Osun could not deliver the APC," Dalung said.
Buhari's Death and El-Rufai's Detention Reshape 2027 Landscape
Dalung said Buhari's death had fundamentally changed the political landscape heading into 2027, pointing out that the former president's influence can no longer be counted on to deliver northern votes. He also cited the detention of former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai as a further blow to the APC's support base in the region. "For those of you who are thinking what has changed between 2023 and 2027, Buhari is dead. There's a huge difference. He's no longer around," he said.
Backing former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi as the opposition's strongest pairing, Dalung described them as the most experienced candidates for 2027. Atiku is the ADC's presidential candidate, with Amaechi as his running mate. The 2027 opposition field also includes Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso, who are contesting under the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC).
Conflicting Forecasts: Tinubu Projected to Win 20 States
Legit.ng earlier reported that a new political forecast has projected President Bola Tinubu winning 20 states in the 2027 presidential election, with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar taking nine states and Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate Peter Obi securing eight.
