Prince Adewole Adebayo, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) presidential candidate, has warned that petrol prices in Nigeria could climb to ₦5,000 per litre if President Bola Tinubu wins a second term in 2027. Adebayo argued that two core policies driving the current administration—full deregulation of the downstream petroleum sector and the free float of the naira—have placed Nigeria on a path towards runaway inflation.
Currency devaluation and subsidy removal: the core drivers
Adebayo's projection rests heavily on the direction of the naira's exchange rate. Because Nigeria imports petrol and prices it in US dollars, any further weakening of the local currency directly raises the cost at the pump. He said: "If the exchange rate hits ₦3,500 to $1 in the coming years, the landing cost of fuel alone will exceed ₦4,000. You cannot have economy illiterates running your country and expect the people not to suffer."
According to Daily Trust, Adebayo gave the warning through a press release issued by Mark Adebayo, the Chief Communications Adviser to the SDP presidential campaign. The SDP candidate also noted that the complete removal of government subsidies eliminates any buffer against spikes in global crude oil prices. "If global crude prices spike due to geopolitical tensions, Nigerian consumers will bear 100% of the burden at the pump, which automatically triggers a compounded inflation spiral," he said, as reported by New Telegraph.
Hidden costs: interest rates and infrastructure failures
Adebayo also pointed to high Central Bank interest rates as a hidden cost driver, arguing that oil marketers borrowing at steep rates to finance imports pass those financing charges directly on to consumers, alongside costs tied to poor port and distribution infrastructure. He described the current economic hardship as the predictable result of applying what he called "foreign IMF-style models" rather than policies built around Nigerian citizens.
"We cannot run an economy purely on taxes, subsidy removal, and currency devaluation without producing anything internally," he said. "A ₦5,000 fuel price is not a myth; it is basic mathematics based on the direction the Tinubu administration is walking."
Adebayo's alternative plan and context
The SDP candidate said that if elected, he would move quickly to restore local refining capacity through transparent public-private partnerships and reintroduce targeted support measures to shield ordinary Nigerians from economic shocks. Adebayo was ratified as the SDP's presidential candidate on May 29, 2026, ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Meanwhile, Legit.ng also reported that Atiku Abubakar accused the Tinubu administration of failing to account for Federation Account deductions and oil revenues since 2023. The former vice president pointed to June 2025 FAAC figures showing ₦4.232 trillion in gross revenue against ₦1.818 trillion distributed. Atiku compared current fuel prices to the Yar'Adua era, when petrol sold at ₦65 per litre even as crude oil traded near $147 per barrel.
