The recent announcement of Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola, popularly known as Yayi, as the consensus governorship candidate of the Ogun State chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the forthcoming 2027 elections came with a lot of political horse-trading. In this report, highlights the deals that may place Governor Dapo Abiodun as the first governor in the state's governance history to break the jinx of hostile handover of power.
Background of the Consensus
When the roll call of Ogun State's APC stakeholders ended at the Presidential Lodge, Ibara, on the night of March 27, 2026, the silence that followed was louder than the deliberations that preceded it. Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola, popularly called Yayi, was later pronounced as the consensus governorship candidate of the party ahead of the 2027 general election. It was not a primary. There were no ballot boxes; no delegates singing solidarity songs under the scorching sun and also no financial inducement. Instead, what happened was the culmination of 14 months of nocturnal meetings, backchannel shuttles to Bourdillon (President Bola Tinubu's country home) and a rare agreement among Ogun State's past governors that the state could not afford another bruising governorship primary, hence a consensus option.
To many of the stakeholders, it is a good development that will help solidify the ruling party that has been divided along the ideas and interests of their political leaders. While some stakeholders view the consensus arrangement as denying other aspirants their legitimate right to participate in the primary, some see it as the most appropriate process that reduces financial expenses of having to organise delegates from the state to elect a flagbearer.
The Making of a Consensus Candidate
Insider sources said the word "consensus" returned to Ogun APC's lexicon shortly after the February 2025 National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting of the party in Abuja. At that meeting, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu had told governors and state chairmen that "where possible, reduce tension, reduce cost, and reward loyalty." In Ogun, the message landed on a fertile ground. The 2023 general election had exposed the fault lines within the state chapter, and President Tinubu understood that there is a need for swift movement to safeguard the APC in Ogun State before it gets fragmented.
"We told ourselves the truth," said a member of the State Working Committee who was part of the Ibara meeting. "Another primary would reopen wounds from 2019 and 2023. The president was clear: Ogun is too strategic to toy with." The source added that Ogun is strategic because 2027 is a referendum on the Renewed Hope Agenda of the current federal administration, and Tinubu wants his South West zone to be intact.
The Tinubu, Ex-Governors' Factor in Yayi's Emergence
Multiple sources confirmed that between November 2025 and March 2026, Yayi was at the Presidential Villa at least nine times and three of those visits included joint meetings with Governor Dapo Abiodun and former governors Olusegun Osoba, Gbenga Daniel, and Ibikunle Amosun on how to come to a compromise on the issue of Yayi's candidacy ahead of 2027 governorship election.
Findings also showed that Osoba played a critical role in the emergence of Yayi. A top party leader in the state disclosed that Osoba threw his weight behind Yayi after a January 2026 meeting in his Ikoyi residence where he asked the aspirant three questions, which he satisfactorily answered: "Do you understand Ogun? Will you respect the elders? Will you complete unfinished projects?"
Also, former governor Daniel, who currently represents Ogun East Senatorial District, was said to have presented his own terms to support Yayi. Daniel wanted assurances from Yayi that the Sagamu Interchange-Benin Expressway and the Olokola Free Trade Zone projects would be executed. He was said to have gotten the assurance after which he publicly endorsed Yayi on March 3, 2026, at the 20th anniversary of the Tai Solarin University of Education.
Amosun was the last to come aboard. The cold war between Amosun and Abiodun had defined Ogun APC since 2019. Tinubu's intervention was direct: "Fix it or I will." A fence-mending meeting at the Presidential Villa on March 18 ended with a photograph of Amosun, Abiodun, and Yayi holding hands. The caption was simple: "Ogun first."
Abiodun, who will be completing his second term in May 2027, told the stakeholders at Ibara: "I have no anointed candidate. I have a party candidate. And that is Senator Adeola." Earlier, the Yewa elders had summoned all the aspirants from Ogun West to former Senator Felix Bajomo's house in Lagos, where they agreed to support whoever emerges as the consensus candidate among them. Those present at the meeting were Bajomo, Senator Akin Odunsi, Minister of State for Health, Isiaq Adekunle Salako and former vice chancellor of the University of Lagos, Prof. Rahamon Bello, among others.
The announcement of Yayi as the consensus candidate took other contestants by surprise because none of them believed the pendulum would swing to him so quickly. They had anticipated that a direct primary would be conducted by the party but the party chose the consensus option to avoid polarisation. It was gathered that a day before the endorsement, Governor Abiodun had sent messages to two strong gladiators, Abiodun Akinlade and Gboyega Isiaka to persuade them to support whoever the party leaders picked to succeed. It was also gathered that he had earlier assured them of his support for a Yewa candidacy at a meeting he held with both of them.
The Guardian learnt that Adeola's loyalty to the party, his political structure, and the Yewa agenda gave him an edge over other aspirants jostling for the APC governorship ticket in the state. He is said to be among the first National Assembly members to declare support for Tinubu's presidential bid in January 2022 through the 'West2West Agenda' even as he carefully built structures in all the 236 wards of Ogun long before the 2027 talks began. His candidature may solve the Ogun West clamour for power shift, as the zone has not produced a governor since 1976. "The president believes justice is also a strategy," the source said.
Pact with Ex-Governors
If Tinubu's imprimatur was the seal, the agreement of former governors was the wax. The quick alignment of former governors, who were once sworn enemies, to decide the future of the state, surprised party faithful. Even the rain could not stop them from attending the Ibara endorsement meeting. However, what is not clear yet is what the former governors brought to the table with regard to their political ambitions. Amosun is already warming up to go back to the Senate from the Central District while the incumbent Ogun East District senator, Gbenga Daniel, is seeking reelection. But Abiodun is vying for the same senatorial seat and got the endorsement of the Ogun East APC caucus as the consensus candidate at a recent meeting where Daniel was locked out. This has renewed the cold war between Daniel and Abiodun.
In Ogun West, the seat will be vacant due to the emergence of Yayi, and there are insinuations that it may be ceded to Ota where the incumbent deputy governor, Noimot Salako-Oyedele, hails from and could benefit from the arrangement. But some stakeholders are rooting for Akinlade to take over from Yayi based on his political experience as a four-term member of the House of Representatives as well as his acceptance of the consensus pact.
The Mechanics of Consensus
Consensus, in Ogun APC's definition, did not mean silence. It meant negotiation. At least nine aspirants had declared interest before March 2026. They included Senator Adeola himself, two former House of Representatives members, three businessmen and others. The party set up a five-man "Elders Screening and Negotiation Committee" headed by Osoba to distill the aspirants towards arriving at a consensus. The terms of reference of the committee were hinged on the competence, acceptability, spread, loyalty, and aspirants' capacity to fund the election.
Presently, none of the aspirants from the Ogun West objected to the decision on the consensus agreement, but an aspirant from Ogun Central has said that he would consult his people before deciding on the next political move. Thus, there are fears that the APC in the state could suffer an implosion if the top hierarchy fails to use the party's internal mechanism to persuade the aspirants to queue behind the 'sharing formula' that birthed Yayi's candidacy. It was gathered that party stakeholders believe that Yayi's deputy should come from Ogun Central while the Secretary to the State Government comes from Ogun East so that no zone would be a spectator in the consensus arrangement.
The arrangement has triggered realignment. In Ogun West, traditional rulers under the Yewa Traditional Council issued a communiqué on April 5 thanking President Tinubu and Ogun leaders for ending their 49 years of waiting for the development.
Tinubu's Larger Chessboard
Ogun is one of 11 states where APC is deploying consensus ahead of 2027. The president's calculation is that a rancour-free South West guarantees 6.2 million votes for his second term. "The 2023 election was about winning. The 2027 election is about consolidating. You consolidate by removing banana peels before you get there," a Presidency source said.
If the consensus arrangement holds sway, it will be the first time since 1999 that all living former governors of Ogun would jointly back one successor. Osoba, Daniel, Amosun, and Abiodun have never been on the same political page. And since the return of democracy in 1999 in the state, there has been no record of any outgoing governor who was physically present to witness the inauguration of his successor. Gbenga Daniel, who contested the seat at the time on the platform of the People's Democratic Party (PDP), succeeded Aremo Olusegun Osoba in 2003 in what was deemed a politically hostile atmosphere, and the same scenario happened in 2011 when Senator Ibikunle Amosun of the APC succeeded Daniel. In 2019, Amosun opposed Abiodun's candidacy and aligned with the Allied People's Movement (APM) which had Adekunle Akinlade as its candidate. He was suspended from the APC for anti-party activities as he deployed his entire political arsenal to ensure Abiodun's defeat. But Abiodun triumphed at the poll with a total of 241,670 votes against Akinlade's 222,153 votes.
The current political synergy between Ogun's ex-governors and stakeholders underscores Abiodun as setting a historic benchmark in the state's governance history by breaking the jinx of hostile handover of power. At the consensus meeting, he reiterated his administration's determination to be the first to successfully hand over power in an acrimony-free political ecosystem, a development many analysts believe will enhance the unity and progress of the state.
