On Monday, April 27, 2026, this column suggested it was not too early for the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the most promising opposition coalition, to organize and become purposeful. That advice was largely ignored, with some viewing it as meddlesome. Under normal circumstances, parties take time to select candidates as per the Electoral Act 2026, but current circumstances are far from normal. To survive traps set by internal and external enemies, opposition parties must act smartly and strategically.
The ADC moved slowly. After that unsolicited suggestion in an article titled "Not too early for ADC to anoint a candidate," the party began to unravel. By the end of that week, rumors surfaced that Peter Obi and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the 2023 presidential candidates of the Labour Party (LP) and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), were leaving the ADC for a new Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC). They have indeed moved, along with their supporters, causing the ADC to lose significant momentum.
A diaspora Nigerian based in the UK questioned why the Nigerian press cannot give a clearer view of who can defeat President Bola Tinubu and present the electoral mood. The response was that the press lacks a balanced view because it is ultimately the people's responsibility to elect their leader. Without frequent polls to probe public opinion with certainty, it is difficult to gauge the national mood. What is known is that Nigerians react differently to the question of whether President Tinubu should be replaced.
In the South, some prefer the presidency to remain there for the next five years, believing it is the South's turn after the North's eight years under Muhammadu Buhari. Others are determined to see the presidency go to the South-East, arguing that Tinubu should not take the remaining years belonging to the South. In the North, some prefer the presidency to stay in the South for the next five years, despite the hardship from the government's poor performance, to ensure the North's turn in 2031.
Ideally, measurements should capture gender, economic, demographic, and other interests influencing voter choice, but Nigeria lacks a polling culture. Instead, the press uses its own metrics and biases to explain the mood. Some media campaigners have sworn certain candidates will never reach the presidency, fearing their preferred candidates are blocked by formidable contenders. The 2027 election is a convoluted clash of interests that even the best polls might not disaggregate.
Citizens' reactions to policies and their impact are easier to deduce. Everyone feels Tinubu's afflictions, but when connecting performance to elections, Nigerians speak divergent tongues. Beneficiaries think Tinubu is an economic wizard, while others argue that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) handed over a blistered economy to the APC, and Tinubu is trying. Navigating these interests to forecast the electoral mood and determine who can defeat Tinubu is not straightforward.
The opposition must be clear about itself and selfless enough to read the country's mood. When the ADC showed signs of being a serious coalition, many Nigerians gave it the benefit of the doubt. When state institutions plotted to frustrate the ADC, people of goodwill defended it. They wanted to register a fresh political party to push their ideas and avoid judicial intervention over ownership, but the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) under Mahmood Yakubu thwarted that effort.
Now that Obi and Kwankwaso have moved to the NDC, the ADC is deflated. Did David Mark and other leaders not see it coming? The vibes became tumultuous when Kwankwaso aligned with the ADC. Before that, he had been in talks with the APC, which fell through. Kano State Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, Kwankwaso's protégé, left him stranded. In the ADC, an Obi/Kwankwaso alliance seemed the rallying point needed to break demographic and zoning barriers. Obi's foot soldiers, who helped him come third in 2023 without formal political structure, made clear they would not waste their votes again. Kwankwaso brought a clear advantage from the North. The ADC leadership should have read the signs and made concessions if they were on a rescue mission.
Now, the major opposition to the ADC is the NDC, with loyalists trading blames and insults. This shows they were never united, just a group of power mongers. For the Tinubu camp, there is no better way to sink the fiercest opposition on the road to 2027.
Around the time opposition talks were first proposed, the African Centre for Leadership, Strategy and Development (ACLSD), in partnership with the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD), the Westminster Foundation for Democracy (WFD), the Peering Advocacy and Advancement Centre in Africa (PAACA), and the National Peace Committee (NPC), held a conference on January 27, 2025, in Abuja. It was an intervention to sustain democracy amid a wave of military coups in Africa. Present was a coalition of opposition-minded politicians from the ruling APC and other parties, including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rotimi Amaechi, Aminu Tambuwal, Nasir el-Rufai, Kayode Fayemi, Lyel Imoke, and Emeka Ihedioha. Dr. Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, then Special Adviser on Political Issues in the Presidency, represented Vice President Kashim Shettima.
Guest Speaker, former Vice President of Ghana Mahamudu Bawumia, admonished opposition leaders to bury individual ambitions for the country's survival. He cautioned that democracy in Africa is fragile, noting eight military coups between 2020 and 2023. He stressed the importance of trusted institutions like electoral commissions, the judiciary, and law enforcement agencies, whose independence is necessary for democracy to grow. Bawumia said: "When institutions are undermined for partisan or sectional interests, they lose their ability to function effectively, paving the way for autocracy and misgovernance." He linked democracy's survival to socio-economic justice and development, insisting there will be no rest as long as poverty and injustice persist, and emphasized active citizenship in strengthening democracy.
After the lecture, this column published an intervention titled "For this democracy to thrive" on February 10, 2025, to press home the message and remind operators that democracy had lost meaning for the people. It also told frontline opposition leaders that their assignment was well cut out; they must not miss the occasion. Now they are close to missing it, and nothing has changed in their calculations to take power from the ruling party. "They learned nothing and they have forgotten nothing," like the French Bourbon monarchy that refused to adapt to the tide of a brewing 19th-century revolution. Their refusal led to the French Revolution, which paved the way for the democratic republic.
Two weeks ago, suggesting it was not too early for the ADC to anoint a presidential candidate was simply gauging the political environment and suggesting the party consider dynamics across the country. Young people are restless and disconnected from old-style big-man politics. They want mobile, articulate candidates who feel their frustrations. They made clear their preference for a relatively younger team to help the party cross borders of zones and ethnic limitations. But the politicians remained stuck in old ways.
Meanwhile, the APC seems to understand the clamor for a shift. They do not have an immediate answer because Tinubu struggles with age, but they have deployed resources to appeal to segments. Their City Boys are spending undisclosed billions to woo young people. The wife of the President, Senator Oluremi Tinubu, is distributing farm inputs across the North from accounts that were not appropriated. Other APC campaign groups openly share cash and demand beneficiaries present their identities. The opposition is bickering and self-flagellating. Shame!
