Nigeria's diesel market is showing clear signs of strain, with declining inventories and rising prices sparking fresh concerns about a potential supply squeeze. In Lagos, the country's main petroleum trading hub, depot stock levels have thinned significantly, leaving only a fraction of facilities with available product.
Market data from PetroleumPriceNG indicates that just about 10 out of roughly 52 depots in Lagos currently have Automotive Gas Oil (diesel) in stock, and even those are operating with limited volumes. This sharp drop in availability has heightened anxiety among industry players, who warn that a broader shortage could emerge if supply does not improve quickly.
Import Slowdown and Rising Costs Drive Pressure
The tightening supply has been linked to a mix of global and domestic factors. Rising landing costs have made imports less attractive, prompting many marketers to scale back procurement. At the same time, uncertainty in international oil markets has encouraged a more cautious approach among importers.
Product specifications are also playing a role. Many buyers are showing a preference for imported diesel within the 0.83 to 0.84 density range, narrowing sourcing options and slowing down restocking efforts. Together, these factors have created a bottleneck that is now feeding into domestic supply constraints.
Prices Jump Nearly 6% in 24 Hours
The impact of the supply squeeze has been swift. Diesel prices climbed from about N1,750 per litre earlier in the week to around N1,850 per litre within 24 hours, marking a 5.7 per cent increase. This sharp adjustment reflects how sensitive the market is to supply disruptions and replacement cost pressures.
Depot Prices Rise Across Key Hubs
A closer look at depot pricing between April 21 and April 23 shows a consistent upward trend across major supply centres.
In Lagos, diesel sold for around N1,760 per litre on April 21 at depots such as Nipco, Ardova, and Ibachem. By April 22, prices surged, with Sahara, Duport, Ibeto, and Ibachem posting rates as high as N1,860 per litre. The upward movement persisted on April 23, with several depots maintaining elevated prices between N1,800 and N1,860 per litre.
Warri followed a similar trajectory. Prices rose from about N1,830 per litre on April 21 to N1,850 the next day, before climbing further to as high as N1,950 per litre by April 23 at major depots.
In Port Harcourt, diesel prices mirrored this pattern. After hovering around N1,850 per litre on April 21, rates dipped slightly on April 22 before surging to N1,950 per litre by April 23 at key depots, including Matrix, Sigmund, and Sahara.
Supply Risks Persist as Market Tightens
The consistent price increases across Lagos, Warri, and Port Harcourt point to tightening supply rather than weak demand. Depot operators are adjusting prices in response to limited availability and uncertainty around replacement costs.
With inventories already constrained in Lagos and upward price momentum spreading nationwide, the diesel market is entering a more fragile phase. If import activity remains subdued and restocking does not pick up, Nigeria could face a more pronounced supply challenge in the weeks ahead.
Petrol Prices Rise at Depots, Filling Stations Nationwide
Legit.ng earlier reported that the prices of petroleum products such as Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), also known as petrol; Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), commonly called diesel; and aviation fuel have remained under pressure, with importation higher than domestic refinery prices. In its latest report titled Energy Bulletin, released on Tuesday, April 14, the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) stated that at the Dangote Refinery, petrol is priced at about N1,153 per litre (coastal) and around N1,200 per litre at the gantry. Diesel is estimated at N1,750 per litre, while aviation fuel is priced at approximately N1,916.22 per litre.
