France and Argentina have surpassed Spain as the leading favorites to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to Opta's supercomputer predictions ahead of the Round of 32. Spain entered the tournament as the top contender but slipped after a shocking draw against debutant Cape Verde in their opening match, despite subsequently winning against Saudi Arabia and Uruguay to top their group.
Only three teams finished the group stage with a perfect record of three wins: co-hosts Mexico, Argentina, and France. Notably, Mexico is the only side that did not concede a goal in the group stage. Argentina and France, who met in the 2022 final, are now on opposite sides of the knockout bracket, raising the possibility of a second consecutive final matchup between them.
Knockout Bracket Dynamics
Spain and France are set to meet in the semifinals if both advance, meaning they cannot face each other in the final. Brazil and England are in the same bracket and would clash in the quarterfinals if they progress, with the winner potentially meeting Argentina in the semifinals. Portugal faces a challenging path, with Spain and France as potential Round of 16 and quarterfinal opponents. A Lionel Messi vs. Cristiano Ronaldo showdown is only possible if both Argentina and Portugal reach the final.
Top 5 World Cup Favorites According to Opta
France – The two-time champions are now clear favorites with a 22.47% chance of winning, thanks to an impressive group stage led by Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele, and Michael Olise.
Argentina – The defending champions have a 15.90% chance of retaining the title. Captain Lionel Messi scored six goals in three group matches.
Spain – La Roja's opening draw against Cape Verde dropped their odds to 13.2% despite finishing top of their group. They are aiming for their second world title.
England – Thomas Tuchel's side would have had a perfect group stage but for a 0-0 draw against Ghana. They have a 9.32% chance of winning.
Portugal – Cristiano Ronaldo's team finished second in their group after a 5-0 win over Uzbekistan and draws against DR Congo and Colombia. Their winning probability stands at 4.98%.
Morocco's Strong Showing
Morocco, semifinalists in 2022, have already advanced to the Round of 16 after eliminating the Netherlands 3-2 on penalties. Opta gives them a 10.98% chance of surpassing their previous semifinal achievement and a 4.45% chance of winning the tournament.
