Opta's supercomputer has released its prediction for the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 match between Argentina and Egypt, scheduled for July 7, 2026, at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The simulation, based on 25,000 match scenarios, gives defending champions Argentina a 69.1% chance of victory, while Egypt's chances stand at 12.3%. A draw, which would send the match into extra time for both teams, is rated at 18.5%.
Road to the Round of 16
Argentina advanced after a hard-fought 3-2 extra-time win over debutant Cape Verde in the Round of 32. The African side pushed the reigning champions to the limit before succumbing. Egypt, meanwhile, secured their spot by defeating Australia on penalties following a goalless 120-minute draw. The Pharaohs are the third African team Argentina has faced in this tournament, having previously beaten Algeria 3-0 in the group stage and Cape Verde in the knockout round.
Messi vs Salah: A Potential Final World Cup Encounter
The match pits two of football's biggest stars—Lionel Messi and Mohamed Salah—against each other, with the loser likely playing their final World Cup match. Both players are key to their teams' hopes. Argentina coach Lionel Scaloni acknowledged the threat posed by Salah, stating, "We are on alert just like we were before the match against Cape Verde. Egypt is also a good rival. It’s a very good team. They have important players and a coach who has been working with them for a while now. Salah is a great player; it will be a pleasure to face him. Our team knows how to face these great players, and we always work hard for it."
Historical Context and Managerial Respect
Argentina and Egypt have met twice before. Argentina won 6-0 in the 1928 Summer Olympics in Amsterdam and 2-0 in a 2008 friendly in Cairo. Egypt coach Hossam Hassan expressed respect for Argentina but emphasized the need to focus on the entire squad. "Argentina has great players. Of course, they have the legendary Messi, but we do respect all their squad. This is football, and we cannot disrespect our opponent," he said. "I’ve been working with my players and preparing them regardless of the colour of the opponent’s shirt, or what name they have, and what ranking they have."
Supercomputer's Broader World Cup Predictions
Opta's supercomputer also simulated the overall tournament winner before the Round of 16. Argentina remains one of the top contenders to defend their title, with only France having a better chance of lifting the trophy. The match between Argentina and Egypt is seen as a crucial test for both sides, with the winner advancing to the quarter-finals.
