The first round of matches at the 2026 FIFA World Cup has produced a record number of goals and several major upsets, forcing Opta's supercomputer to revise its predictions for the eventual champions. Before the tournament, Spain were considered favourites to win the expanded 48-team event, ahead of France, England, and defending champions Argentina. However, after an opening round packed with surprises, the data-driven model has installed a new favourite.
Record-Breaking Opening Round
A total of 75 goals were scored across the first 24 matches, averaging 3.13 goals per game, setting a new record for the highest-scoring opening round in World Cup history. Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe, Erling Haaland, and Harry Kane all made early statements in the race for the Golden Boot. However, it was the performances of several underdogs that generated the biggest headlines.
Major Shocks
Tiny island nation Cape Verde produced the biggest surprise by frustrating Spain in a goalless draw. Portugal also failed to live up to expectations as Cristiano Ronaldo and his teammates were held to a 1-1 draw by DR Congo. Ghana needed a dramatic stoppage-time winner to edge Panama, while Ivory Coast defeated Ecuador to hand Africa its first victory of the tournament. Elsewhere, Germany demolished Curaçao 7-1, England defeated Croatia 4-2, France overcame Senegal 3-1, and Norway eased past Iraq 4-1.
Historic Moments
Curaçao celebrated its first-ever World Cup goal despite a heavy defeat to Germany, with Livano Comenencia becoming the first player to score for the Caribbean nation. Uzbekistan also entered the history books through Abbosbek Fayzullaev, whose goal against Colombia marked his country's first strike in World Cup history. DR Congo enjoyed a similar milestone when Yoane Wissa found the net against Portugal, giving the central Africans their first World Cup goal since appearing as Zaire in 1974.
Revised Predictions
Prior to the tournament, Spain held a 16.1% probability of winning the World Cup according to Opta's simulations. France followed with 13%, England 11.2%, and Argentina and Portugal completed the top five. But Spain's failure to beat Cape Verde and Portugal's draw with DR Congo have significantly altered the picture, while France and England strengthened their positions with impressive opening victories.
Opta's updated model now places France at the top with a 15.73% chance of becoming world champions. England have moved into second place with 12.33%, narrowly ahead of Argentina on 12.28%. Spain have dropped to fourth with 12.08%, while Germany complete the top five with 6.43%.
Why France Are Favourites
France's convincing victory over Senegal and favourable knockout probabilities have aided their rise. According to the supercomputer, Les Bleus have a 76.08% chance of reaching the round of 16, a 52.08% probability of making the quarter-finals, and a 37.23% chance of reaching the semi-finals. Their likelihood of appearing in the final stands at 24.59%, the highest among all teams.
Norway Among Biggest Movers
Norway have quietly emerged as dark horses after their commanding victory over Iraq. Led by Erling Haaland, the supercomputer gives Norway a 4.68% chance of lifting the trophy, placing them above traditional giants such as Belgium. Colombia have also entered the top 10 after beating Uzbekistan and now possess a 2.88% chance of becoming world champions.
