The Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) has issued a stark warning that the recently introduced 15% import tariff on petroleum products could drive petrol prices to unprecedented levels, potentially reaching between N998 and N1,028 per litre across different regions of the country.
Immediate Impact on Fuel Prices
According to MEMAN Executive Secretary Mr. Clement Isong, the new tariff policy would significantly increase the cost of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) and diesel, with preliminary calculations showing an additional N122.46 per litre on the current landing cost of petrol. This would elevate the landed cost from N827.24 to N949.70 per litre, ultimately pushing retail prices to approximately N998 per litre in Lagos and N1,028 per litre in other regions.
Isong expressed these concerns during a joint MEMAN–S&P Global Commodity Insights webinar titled "Fostering Competition and Innovation: Lessons from Deregulated Markets for Nigeria's Energy Sector" held in November 2025. He emphasized that the tariff rate is excessively high and counterproductive to Nigeria's energy security objectives.
Economic Consequences and Inflationary Pressures
The MEMAN executive secretary warned that such price increases would impose further economic hardship on Nigerians already struggling with high inflation. Diesel prices could surge to between N1,164 and N1,194 per litre, depending on distribution margins, which would inevitably drive up transportation and logistics costs across the economy.
"We think it's a bit high. And we think it will have a significant impact on the pump prices," Isong stated. "This would add N122 to the price of PMS as of today, this is our calculation."
While acknowledging that tariffs can serve to protect domestic refineries, Isong argued that such a steep rate should have been considered as a last resort, as it risks discouraging competition and exacerbating the country's inflation crisis.
Call for Refinery Revival and Energy Security
MEMAN has underscored the urgent need to rehabilitate Nigeria's four state-owned refineries or engage credible technical partners to restore them to full operational capacity. The association stressed that the Dangote Refinery and other modular refineries must operate alongside public refineries to ensure a competitive and stable fuel market.
Isong emphasized that Nigeria's ability to increase crude oil production will be crucial in supporting both existing and upcoming refineries, fostering self-sufficiency in fuel supply and reducing the nation's dependence on expensive imports.
The warning comes amid some positive market developments, with Dangote Refinery and several private depot operators recently reducing their selling price to N889 per litre, down from the previous N890, reflecting a drop in landing costs and crude benchmarks that signals growing competition in Nigeria's downstream sector.
