Nigeria's Fuel Market Defies Global Crude Price Decline
In a striking departure from global energy trends, Nigeria's downstream petroleum sector continues to experience elevated fuel prices despite a significant drop in international crude oil benchmarks. Market data reveals that Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) and Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) prices at major depots have remained stubbornly high, with some locations even recording fresh increases during the first week of February 2026.
Persistent Supply Constraints Override Crude Price Signals
Industry analysts point to local supply pressures rather than international oil fundamentals as the primary driver behind this pricing behavior. The persistent disconnect between crude benchmarks and domestic fuel pricing underscores structural challenges within Nigeria's petroleum distribution network. Product availability remains tight across key corridors, with import licences only recently issued and several jetties reportedly inactive without confirmed vessel arrivals.
Market watchers emphasize that empty jetties and delayed cargo inflows have forced depot owners to hold onto available stocks to manage replacement costs and protect their margins. This cautious approach has resulted in sustained price firmness, particularly in supply-constrained markets where logistics challenges continue to dominate pricing decisions.
Diesel Prices Show Significant Regional Variations
The diesel market exhibited the clearest signs of price firmness in southern trading hubs, with Warri and Port Harcourt experiencing notable week-on-week increases. In Warri, depot prices converged at higher levels as multiple operators adjusted their rates upward. Edo Refinery maintained its AGO price at ₦950 per litre, while Nipco raised its price from ₦946 to ₦950, effectively pushing the local market to a flat ₦950 per litre rate.
Port Harcourt recorded even sharper movements, with Bulk Strategic quoting ₦972 per litre on Monday compared to Sigmund's ₦955 per litre from the previous Friday. This represents a significant increase despite softening international crude prices. In contrast, Lagos depots experienced mild downward adjustments, suggesting slightly better liquidity in the commercial capital's market.
Petrol Prices Demonstrate Resilience Across Depots
Premium Motor Spirit prices also showed remarkable stability across major distribution centers. Port Harcourt depots maintained firm pricing, with Masters selling at ₦835 per litre and Bulk Strategic quoting ₦850. While some selective corrections occurred, with Sigmund adjusting down to ₦835 from ₦855, these represented isolated adjustments rather than a broad market decline.
Warri depots recorded marginal increases, with Zamson and Danmarna adjusting PMS prices from ₦816 to ₦820 per litre between January 30 and February 2. Lagos maintained its position as the cheapest major PMS market, with Nipco selling at ₦799 per litre and Aiteo at ₦797, demonstrating relative stability compared to other regions.
Structural Challenges in Nigeria's Downstream Sector
The latest pricing trends reinforce a familiar pattern in Nigeria's petroleum industry, where depot prices respond more to logistics challenges, supply tightness, and local market conditions than to global crude oil movements. This structural reality keeps fuel costs elevated across major trading hubs despite favorable international price signals.
The sustained high prices at Dangote Refinery and other major depots highlight the complex interplay between global energy markets and Nigeria's domestic petroleum infrastructure. As filling stations continue to sell at elevated rates, consumers face the economic impact of these market dynamics, with supply constraints proving more influential than crude price declines in determining final fuel costs.
This situation continues to place pressure on both commercial operations and household budgets, underscoring the need for improved distribution infrastructure and more responsive market mechanisms within Nigeria's petroleum sector.
