Former Ekiti State Governor Ayo Fayose has declared that President Bola Tinubu will win the 2027 presidential election regardless of the opposition's strategy, whether Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi unite on a joint ticket or run as separate candidates. Fayose argued that a divided opposition would further weaken its chances of unseating the incumbent.
Fayose's Prediction on Channels Television
Speaking on Channels Television's Politics Today programme on Tuesday, September 15, 2026, Fayose said that even a combined Atiku-Obi ticket would not be enough to defeat Tinubu. He warned that if the two opposition figures run separately, the election would be "balkanised," further reducing their prospects.
"A three-way horse, maybe I am not putting it right. Atiku is there, Obi is there. Even if they come together, this man (Tinubu) will still defeat them. But let us say they don't come together, too bad for them because this election will be balkanised," Fayose said.
South-West Votes and Expected Margin
Fayose claimed that the South-West region alone would deliver a margin of at least six million votes for Tinubu, questioning how either Atiku or Obi could make inroads into the President's home region. He predicted Tinubu would secure at least 12 million votes in total to clinch victory.
"Unfortunately, you are not a politician. I am analysing based on my experience. You brought me to this place because you know that I knew a little about Nigeria. This politics is not a tea party. Asiwaju will have over two million votes; write it down – to rig an election now is very, very difficult," Fayose said.
Power Rotation and the North
Fayose framed a Tinubu victory as the quickest path for power to return to the North after eight years, arguing that a win for either Atiku or Obi would delay that prospect. He said that any Northerner contesting now was wasting their time.
"The reality today is this: power is coming to the South; the South must do eight years. Let me equally tell you, Asiwaju is the shortest point to the North. If Atiku comes in, he will be struggling to do eight years; if Obi comes in, he will want to say I will do eight years. May I say to you respectfully, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the shortest point to power going back to the North; any Northerner contesting now is just contesting," he said.
Economy and Infrastructure as Factors
Fayose linked his confidence to what he described as visible improvements under Tinubu, particularly the stabilisation of an economy he said was left in a critical state by former President Muhammadu Buhari. He also pointed to road infrastructure across Nigeria as evidence of progress, acknowledging that not everyone shared his view.
Fayose said he held no personal grievances against anyone but insisted the opposition already knew it faced an uphill task in 2027.
Wike vs APC Governors: Fayose's Other Comments
In a separate development, Legit.ng reported that Fayose weighed in on the Rainbow Coalition row between FCT Minister Nyesom Wike and APC governors. APC governors led by Hope Uzodimma warned on Monday against any alliance that could weaken the party's candidates in 2027. Wike doubled down on Tuesday, insisting the Rainbow Coalition was built to back Tinubu across party lines, not to rival APC structures.
