As political discussions in Oyo State begin to focus on the 2027 governorship election, a familiar and divisive narrative is attempting to resurface: the framing of the succession battle along religious lines. However, a thorough examination of the state's electoral history and political culture reveals that such arguments hold little weight with the sophisticated electorate.
Oyo's Electoral History: A Record of Merit Over Faith
The political journey of Oyo State since the return to democracy in 1999 provides a clear lesson. From Ibadan to Oke-Ogun, Ogbomosho, Oyo, and Ibarapa zones, power has never been secured solely through religious or ethnic identity. Instead, it has been earned via demonstrated competence, integrity, strong political organisation, and the sustained trust of the public.
This pattern is evident in the state's leadership timeline. Between 1999 and 2003, the late Alhaji Lam Adesina of the Alliance for Democracy (AD), a Muslim, governed. His administration was known for education reforms, yet he lost re-election due to political realignments, not his faith.
He was succeeded by Senator Rashidi Ladoja of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), also a Muslim, who served from 2003 to 2007. His tenure was marked by political crises, highlighting that survival in Oyo politics depends on structure, not religion.
The pendulum swung in 2007 with the election of Otunba Adebayo Alao-Akala (PDP), a Christian. Despite his appeal, he served only one term, proving that religious identity does not guarantee electoral longevity.
From 2011 to 2019, the late Senator Abiola Ajimobi of the ACN and later APC, a Muslim, broke records by governing for eight consecutive years. His re-election was secured through urban renewal, infrastructure projects, and political consolidation, not religious sentiment.
The current governor, Seyi Makinde of the PDP, a Christian, has been in office since 2019 and is set to complete his eight-year tenure in 2027. His initial victory and commanding re-election in 2023 were built on political alliances, policy delivery like the regular payment of salaries, and the historic resolution of the LAUTECH ownership issue.
The Numbers and Voter Psychology
When the figures are aggregated, they decisively dispel any notion of religious bias. By 2027, Muslim governors will have led Oyo for approximately 16 years since 1999, while Christian governors will have led for about 12 years. This near balance confirms that leadership has been distributed by electoral choice, not by a rotational religious formula.
Beyond statistics, the behaviour of Oyo voters remains remarkably consistent. Market women, artisans, civil servants, farmers, and youths consciously vote based on a candidate's public record, manifesto quality, character, and competence. They prioritise tangible deliverables like roads, schools, healthcare facilities, and job creation programs over religious rhetoric.
Infrastructure is neutral, and the outcomes of good governance are shared realities that benefit all citizens, regardless of denomination.
The Road to Agodi Government House in 2027
While Governor Makinde is reportedly working on a succession plan, political insiders confirm the calculations are far removed from religion. The focus is on policy continuity, political acceptability, and statewide appeal.
This pattern serves as a critical lesson for opposition parties serious about winning. The race to the Agodi Government House has never been won on denominational grounds. Credible candidates will be assessed on their grassroots connection, the strength of their political structure, their level of acceptability, and the public trust they have earned across all zones.
As 2027 approaches, the defining question for Oyo State will not be 'who worships where?' but 'who can govern better?'. The evidence from over two decades of democracy strongly suggests that the politically savvy people of Oyo State have already outgrown the politics of religion.
