The global oil market is facing a significant imbalance as production levels surge ahead of worldwide consumption, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Growing Supply-Demand Gap
In its monthly oil market report released on Thursday, November 13, 2025, the IEA substantially revised its global oil supply projections upward. The agency now predicts that supply will exceed demand by more than four million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, creating what it describes as a "lopsided" market situation.
The organization noted that while oil deliveries to China have shown strength, this hasn't been enough to counterbalance the overall trend. "Global oil market balances are looking increasingly lopsided, as world oil supply is forging ahead while oil demand growth remains modest by historical standards," the IEA stated in its assessment.
Revised Supply Projections and Market Impact
Based on the latest calculations, global oil supply is expected to grow by 3.1 million bpd in 2025, followed by an additional 2.5 million bpd increase in 2026. Although oil consumption continues to rise, the pace remains significantly slower than the expansion in supply.
The situation appears particularly concerning in the final quarter of 2025, where demand growth is projected to ease compared to the previous three months. The IEA warned this development would contribute to "market balances that look increasingly askew."
Uncertain Factors and Price Movement
The energy agency acknowledged several uncertainties that could affect these forecasts, including economic repercussions from recent tariff turmoil, the impact of the US government shutdown, and the effects of latest Western sanctions on Russia, a major oil producer.
Meanwhile, Brent crude was trading at $63.05 per barrel on Thursday, showing a slight daily increase but representing a substantial 17 percent decline over the past 12 months. This price movement reflects the ongoing pressure from abundant supplies in the market.
The IEA's findings highlight challenging conditions ahead for oil-dependent economies worldwide, including Nigeria, as the market adjusts to this new supply-demand dynamic.
