China has once again become Germany's most important trading partner, overtaking the United States after a brief period where American trade dominated. Official data released on Wednesday, November 19, 2025, confirmed this significant shift in global economic dynamics.
Trade Figures Tell the Story
According to Germany's federal statistics agency, Destatis, the total trade volume between Europe's largest economy and China from January to September 2025 saw a slight increase, reaching nearly 186 billion euros ($215 billion). In a contrasting development, trade between Germany and the United States during the same period slowed down by almost four percent, settling at just under 185 billion euros.
This reversal marks a return to a pattern seen from 2016 to 2023, where China consistently held the top position. The United States had managed to jump into the lead in 2024, a period when Berlin was actively pursuing a strategy to lessen its long-standing economic reliance on China.
The Impact of US Tariffs
Economists point to the tariff policies of US President Donald Trump as a primary driver behind this change. ING economist Carsten Brzeski explained that the development clearly reflects the negative impact that US tariffs are having on German exports. A deal struck in July 2025 established a baseline levy of 15 percent for EU exports to the United States, a rate far higher than what was in place before Trump's return to office.
These tariffs have placed a heavy burden on the German economy, which has already been facing significant struggles. Despite this, the US remains the top export market for a wide range of German goods, including automobiles and pharmaceuticals, and Germany continues to maintain a substantial trade surplus with the United States.
Germany's Persistent Dependence on China
The news also underscores the considerable challenge Germany faces in its attempt to decouple from the Chinese market. Brzeski noted that the data shows the ongoing dependence of the German economy, particularly its industrial sector, on critical imports from China. These include rare earths, semiconductors, and other essential input goods.
This reliance is highlighted by the fact that Germany runs a substantial trade deficit with China. The situation is further complicated by a shifting perception of China within Germany. LBBW bank analyst Jens-Oliver Niklasch stated that China is now perceived more as a competitor than as a trading partner. Many Chinese firms have emerged as direct rivals to top German companies, changing the dynamic of the relationship.
The trade data emerges as German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil is visiting China this week. He is the first representative of Germany's ruling coalition, which took power in May, to make the trip to the world's second-largest economy. This visit occurs against a backdrop of numerous challenges for Germany, including problems in its traditional trading relationships. The country is expected to post only meagre growth this year after enduring two consecutive years of recession.
