A senior Chinese official has raised an alarm about the potential formation of a market bubble in the country's rapidly expanding humanoid robot industry, even as more than 150 domestic companies push development forward.
Innovation Drive Meets Market Reality
Chinese firms are leveraging strong government support and robust supply chains to soar in the global race to create AI-powered robots capable of performing everyday tasks. However, this rapid growth is now facing scrutiny. Li Chao, an official speaking at a National Development and Reform Commission briefing, highlighted the delicate balance required for frontier industries.
"'Speed' and 'bubble' have always been issues that need grasping and balance in the development of frontier industries," Li stated on Thursday, confirming that the humanoid robot sector is no exception.
Signs of Overheating and Global Parallels
The warning echoes broader concerns in the technology investment world. Recently, the financial firm Goldman Sachs cautioned that the sector risks overcapacity as production scales up quickly without a corresponding number of actual customer orders to sustain it.
Li Chao acknowledged the "explosive growth" of the industry, driven by innovation and demand, but offered a sobering perspective. She noted that the humanoid robotics field is not yet mature in terms of its core technology, commercial applications, or practical use cases.
A significant factor adding to the volatility is the nature of the companies involved. Li revealed that more than half of China's 150 humanoid robot firms are either startups or companies that have entered the field from other industries. While this fuels innovation, it also increases the risk of market saturation with highly repetitive products, which could stifle meaningful research and development.
Ambitious Projects Amidst Uncertain Future
Despite the cautionary notes, the ambition within China's robotics scene is undeniable. A report from the consulting firm Leaderobot in April projected that the nation's humanoid robotics industry will reach a value of 82 billion yuan ($11.6 billion) by 2025, capturing half of all global sales.
Real-world applications remain limited, but high-profile demonstrations continue to generate excitement. This month, a robot from Shanghai's AgiBot set a Guinness World Record by walking 100 kilometres over three days. Furthermore, Beijing made history in August by hosting the world's first humanoid robot games, featuring over 500 robot 'athletes' competing in events from basketball to cleaning.
As China charges ahead in this futuristic industry, the government's warning serves as a crucial reminder that technological hype must eventually be matched by commercial viability and sustainable market growth.
