The United Nations has released groundbreaking population projections revealing dramatic shifts in global demographics by the year 2100, with Nigeria positioned to become the fourth most populous nation worldwide.
Top 10 Most Populous Countries in 2100
According to the UN report published on November 10, 2025, India will lead as the world's most populous country with 1.505 billion people, followed by China at 633 million. Pakistan claims the third position with 511 million inhabitants, while Nigeria is projected to reach 477 million people, securing the fourth spot globally.
The complete top ten list includes:
- India – 1.505 billion
- China – 633 million
- Pakistan – 511 million
- Nigeria – 477 million
- Democratic Republic of the Congo – 431 million
- United States of America – 421 million
- Ethiopia – 367 million
- Indonesia – 296 million
- United Republic of Tanzania – 263 million
- Bangladesh – 209 million
Sub-Saharan Africa Drives Global Growth
The report highlights that Sub-Saharan African nations, including Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, are experiencing rapid population expansion primarily driven by high fertility rates and youthful age structures. This regional growth pattern contrasts sharply with China's projected population decline to 633 million from its current position.
Population momentum—the built-in growth potential from a country's age structure—plays a crucial role in these projections. The UN analysis indicates that age structure will contribute 69% of growth through 2054 and 53% through 2100 across growing populations.
Regional Variations in Growth Drivers
The study reveals significant regional differences in what fuels population increases. In most Sub-Saharan African countries, fertility rates remain the strongest growth factor. Meanwhile, net migration serves as the primary driver in Gulf Cooperation Council nations, Europe, Northern America, and Oceania.
These demographic trends indicate a substantial transformation in the global population landscape. Younger, rapidly growing nations in Africa and South Asia are poised to play increasingly influential roles in shaping international dynamics throughout the 21st century.
The United Nations, founded in 1945 after World War II, continues to provide authoritative demographic data and analysis through its specialized agencies, supporting global planning and development initiatives.
